IAEA: Global nuclear power installed capacity could reach up to 1,284 GW by 2060

On September 14, the International Atomic Energy Agency released its latest forecast during the 70th General Conference held in Vienna, raising its global nuclear power growth projection for the sixth consecutive year. The forecast shows that global nuclear power installed capacity could reach up to 1,284 GW by 2060, approximately 3.4 times that of 2025.

According to data disclosed by the IAEA, under the high growth scenario, global nuclear power installed capacity will reach 1,045 GW by 2050; even under the low growth scenario, it will reach 696 GW by 2060, nearly double that of 2025. The forecast figures under multiple scenarios jointly point to one trend——the global nuclear power scale is expected to achieve significant expansion in the coming decades.

IAEA Director General Grossi said in an interview with the media that as global electricity demand continues to grow, the importance of nuclear energy is rising. He emphasized at the conference that nuclear energy will play an increasingly critical role in supporting power system stability and addressing climate change.

Behind this forecast is the change in electricity demand driven by both global energy consumption and decarbonization goals. In recent years, many governments have accelerated the transition to clean energy and brought nuclear energy back into the focus of energy strategy, providing policy support and market space for the long-term development of the nuclear power industry.

It is worth noting that the IAEA pointed out that small modular reactors will play a greater role in future nuclear power expansion. This new reactor type has attracted industry attention due to its flexible scale, short construction period, and high safety, and is expected to become an important force in promoting the widespread adoption of nuclear power.

Industry analysts believe that this consecutive upward revision of nuclear power growth expectations reflects international institutions' continuously improving judgment of the prospects for nuclear power development. From traditional large reactors to small modular technology, the nuclear power industry is evolving toward diversification and enhanced safety.

However, the large-scale deployment of nuclear power still faces many challenges. Issues such as uranium fuel reserves, construction costs, public acceptance, and nuclear waste disposal all affect, to a certain extent, the pace and speed of nuclear power project implementation.

Discussions surrounding the global nuclear power development path are expected to continue in the upcoming IAEA General Conference and related activities. How countries formulate practical nuclear power development plans based on their own energy endowments and technological capabilities will become an important topic in the next stage.